Estimating seismic moment magnitude (<i>M</i><sub><i>w</i></sub>) of tremor bursts in northern Cascadia: Implications for the “seismic efficiency” of episodic tremor and slip
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We develop a method to estimate the seismic moments of deep non‐volcanic tremor bursts observed in northern Cascadia. For each tremor burst, the maximum amplitudes at individual stations within a time window ±5 s around the predicted arrivals of the S phase are measured and compared to the maximum S amplitudes measured from synthetic seismograms. The proposed method is thoroughly calibrated using 464 local earthquakes and the results show excellent consistency between the reported M L and the estimated M w . We apply the method to northern Cascadia tremors and infer that most bursts have M w ∼1.0–1.7. The corresponding b value appears to be 1, consistent with that of ordinary earthquakes but over a narrower M w range. Comparison of cumulative tremor M w and the M w estimated from the accompanying slow slip suggests that the “seismic efficiency” of the Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) is of the order of 0.1% or less.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".