ORIGINAL ARTICLE: Propensity of marine reserves to reduce the evolutionary effects of fishing in a migratory species
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Evolutionary effects of fishing can have unwanted consequences diminishing a fishery's value and sustainability. Reserves, or no-take areas, have been proposed as a management tool for reducing fisheries-induced selection, but their effectiveness for migratory species has remained unexplored. Here we develop an eco-genetic model to predict the effects of marine reserves on fisheries-induced evolution under migration. To represent a stock that undergoes an annual migration between feeding and spawning grounds, we draw model parameters from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the northern part of its range. Our analysis leads to the following conclusions: (i) a reserve in a stock's feeding grounds, protecting immature and mature fish alike, reduces fisheries-induced evolution, even though protected and unprotected population components mix on the spawning grounds; (ii) in contrast, a reserve in a stock's spawning grounds, protecting only mature fish, has little mitigating effects on fisheries-induced evolution and can sometimes even exacerbate its magnitude; (iii) evolutionary changes that are already underway may be difficult to reverse with a reserve; (iv) directly after a reserve is created or enlarged, most reserve scenarios result in yield losses; and (v) timescale is very important: short-term yield losses immediately after a reserve's creation can give way to long-term gains.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it