Comparative testing of numerical models of river ice jams
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ice processes in general, and ice jams in particular, play a dominant role in the hydrologic regime of Canadian rivers, often causing extreme floods and affecting the life cycle of many aquatic, terrestrial, and avian species. Various numerical models have been developed to help simulate the formation and consequences of these very dynamic and often destructive jam events. To test and compare the performance of existing models, a series of three tests have been devised and coordinated by a task force appointed by the Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment (CRIPE). The results indicate that the overall performance of the models is good when calibration data are available, but considerably more varied when the models are applied in uncalibrated or “blind” mode. However, the diversity of results in the blind mode may be attributed more to the variations in perceptions of the physical processes by the users, as compared to the mechanics of the numerical computations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".