Russian Federation - Monthly economic developments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimates and high-frequency indicators suggest continued weakness in the economy even before the latest round of economic sanctions introduced by the European Union (EU), the United States (U.S.), and other countries in late July. The World Bank maintains its current 0.5 percent growth projection for 2014. Inflation slowed in July, but the wide-ranging ban on food imports the Russian authorities introduced in early August will likely increase short-term inflationary pressure and put the Central Banks 2014 inflation target further out of reach. Pressure on the Ruble resumed on the back of escalating geopolitical tension and advanced sanctions. The continued slowdown in Russia comes amid a sharp rebound in economic growth in the U.S. in the second quarter and a modest pickup in activity in China, while external financing conditions for developing countries remain favorable, reflecting continued accommodative policies in high-income economies. Global oil prices reversed their course in July as geopolitical risks emanating out of Iraq abated, but the ban of EU exports of oil drilling technology to Russia can drive up prices again.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.056 | 0.049 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".