Foreclosure Activity in the Portland-Vancouver MSA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Foreclosure activity is an important indicator of community and neighborhood health and the economic viability of households. In the Portland region, foreclosure activity is comparable to many areas of the United States, with significant segments of the population struggling to make their mortgage payments. The foreclosure crisis continues to unfold in the United States. In 2009, RealtyTrac reported 3.9 million foreclosure filings on 2.8 million properties in the U.S., up 21 percent from the previous year. Foreclosure filings include default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank reversions. About two percent of all U.S. housing units received at least one foreclosure notice in 2009. California, Florida, Arizona and Illinois accounted for more than 50 percent of the 2009 foreclosure filings. In 2009, Oregon had the 11th highest rate of foreclosures, with one foreclosure filing for every 47 housing units. Between 2008 and 2009, Oregon filings increased 89 percent. Compared with 2007, foreclosure filings in 2009 increased by 303 percent. While still high, monthly counts of pre-foreclosure notices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) have been steadily declining since late 2008. However, according to RealtyTrac data, counts of bank reversions in the Portland MSA continue to climb and reached near peak levels in October 2009 as default grace periods elapsed. This briefing sheet is designed to stimulate discussion and invite feedback regarding the usefulness of the information for understanding the extent of the foreclosure problem, identifying neighborhoods at risk of widespread problems due to foreclosures, understanding neighborhood change, and targeting intervention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".