The extended Price equation quantifies species selection on mammalian body size across the Palaeocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Species selection, covariation of species' traits with their net diversification rates, is an important component of macroevolution. Most studies have relied on indirect evidence for its operation and have not quantified its strength relative to other macroevolutionary forces. We use an extension of the Price equation to quantify the mechanisms of body size macroevolution in mammals from the latest Palaeocene and earliest Eocene of the Bighorn and Clarks Fork Basins of Wyoming. Dwarfing of mammalian taxa across the Palaeocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), an intense, brief warming event that occurred at approximately 56 Ma, has been suggested to reflect anagenetic change and the immigration of small bodied-mammals, but might also be attributable to species selection. Using previously reconstructed ancestor-descendant relationships, we partitioned change in mean mammalian body size into three distinct mechanisms: species selection operating on resident mammals, anagenetic change within resident mammalian lineages and change due to immigrants. The remarkable decrease in mean body size across the warming event occurred through anagenetic change and immigration. Species selection also was strong across the PETM but, intriguingly, favoured larger-bodied species, implying some unknown mechanism(s) by which warming events affect macroevolution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".