Convergence and persistence in per capita energy use among OECD countries: Revisited using confidence intervals
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the convergence in per capita energy use of a group of 25 OECD countries over the period 1960–2012. Unlike the previous studies, which mainly used unit root tests, in this study, we construct subsampling confidence intervals to assess the convergence in the per capita energy use. These confidence intervals are more informative than the unit root tests, as they provide us with further information on the degree of persistence of the energy use. Our findings suggest that the per capita energy use in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Switzerland has a convergent pattern. However, the per capita energy use in Greece, Luxemburg, and Spain appear to be very persistent. For the rest of the countries, i.e. 12 countries, we see a divergent pattern.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it