Aerial overview survey of the mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia: Communication of impacts
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In western Canada, the current outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) is of unprecedented proportions. Annual aerial overview surveys (AOS) are the primary means of accounting for the area and severity of mountain pine beetle impacts. Typically, reports of impacted areas do not consider severity—the proportion of trees killed within a given area. A common misconception is that all impacted areas will experience 100% pine mortality.We examined a time series of AOS data collected in British Columbia from 1999 to 2005. The year-toyear trends indicated that the AOS data effectively captured the infestation's increasing area, severity, and spatial variability. The cumulative area impacted between 1999 and 2005 was estimated at 11 million ha; 39% of this area was attacked in only one year. The approximate year of death was estimated by assuming a 50% severity threshold. Approximately 6.5 million ha experienced mortality. The results of this study emphasize the importance of reporting severity, as well as considering the cumulative effects of the infestation over time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it