Penalized regression for interval‐censored times of disease progression: Selection of HLA markers in psoriatic arthritis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Times of disease progression are interval-censored when progression status is only known at a series of assessment times. This situation arises routinely in clinical trials and cohort studies when events of interest are only detectable upon imaging, based on blood tests, or upon careful clinical examination. We consider the problem of selecting important prognostic biomarkers from a large set of candidates when disease progression status is only known at irregularly spaced and individual-specific assessment times. Penalized regression techniques (e.g., LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and SCAD) are adapted to handle interval-censored time of disease progression. An expectation-maximization algorithm is described which is empirically shown to perform well. Application to the motivating study of the development of arthritis mutilans in patients with psoriatic arthritis is given and several important human leukocyte antigen (HLA) variables are identified for further investigation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".