Bibliographic record
Abstract
“Elections are a risky business.…If you get into the game, you should be prepared to lose.” – Fidel Castro, to Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega In the Americas, five of six competitive authoritarian regimes democratized in the post–Cold War period. As in Eastern Europe, domestic variables cannot easily explain these outcomes. Democratization occurred in the Dominican Republic, Guyana, Nicaragua, and Peru despite underdevelopment, extreme inequality, and presidentialism. Moreover, although Latin America as a region had greater experience with democracy than other regions covered in this book, the cases examined here had little or no democratic experience prior to 1990. Indeed, in all cases except Mexico, the domestic push for democracy was weak. As in Eastern Europe, regime outcomes in the Americas were powerfully shaped by countries' ties to the West. Latin America – particularly Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean – is characterized by extensive economic, diplomatic, technocratic, social, and communication linkage to the United States. These ties raised the perceived cost of international isolation, which heightened governments' sensitivity to external pressure. Leverage was also high. Long the region's dominant military and economic power, U.S. influence peaked in the 1990s. Unlike much of Asia and the former Soviet Union, where regional powers limited U.S. influence during the post–Cold War period, the United States exercised “uncontested and complete hegemony” in the Americas. Few issues trumped democracy promotion on the U.S. foreign-policy agenda.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".