Aspen, elk, and fire in the Canadian Rocky Mountains
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) is failing to survive through the sapling stage (2 to 4 m) to tree size in many national parks in western North America. Hypotheses for aspen decline include reduced burning, climate change, high herbivory by native ungulates (mainly elk (Cervus elaphus)), or interactions between these factors. Historic and current aspen condition was investigated in several watersheds, inside and outside of national parks, in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada to determine the causes of aspen decline. Methods included repeats of historical photographs, fire history by dendrochronology, time-series analysis (of climate, burned area, elk density, and aspen regeneration), wildlife exclosure measurements, analysis of elk functional herbivory response to aspen density, and effects of predation risk on elk-aspen foraging patterns. Aspen regeneration was abundant in historic photographs, is currently abundant in areas with low elk density (<2 elk/ km ), but has declined precipitously in national park areas with high elk density. Historic anthropogenic burning appeared to be important along valley-bottom corridors occupied by aspen, but declined c. 1900 due to changes in cultural land uses. Yearly fluctuations in climatic conditions or burned area did not appear to be factors in aspen decline. Aspen is regenerating in wildlife exclosures on a range of site moisture conditions. Thus, climate or disturbance, either individually, or interactively with herbivory, do not appear to be major factors in aspen decline. However, elk herbivory was a highly significant factor. Elk-aspen herbivory followed a Type 2 functional response (decreased rates of browsing at higher densities of aspen regeneration) that may have occurred because predation sensitive elk avoided dense aspen stands. Historically, valley-bottom aspen habitats were heavily used by predators (humans and wolves) which reduced elk herbivory, and were frequently human-burned which stimulated regeneration of dense stems. Current land uses in national parks (with control of hunting and fire, and high human use that displaces wary predators but habituates elk) are the opposite of these long-term processes. Successful aspen regeneration will likely require a period of very low densities of elk that are wary of predators and humans, followed by restoration of anthropogenic burning.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it