Supposed Periodicity of Redpoll, <em>Carduelis</em> sp., Winter Visitations in Atlantic Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Redpoll (primarily Carduelis flammea) data from the New Brunswick–Nova Scotia border region were reviewed in the context of alleged biennial periodicity of irruptions south of their breeding range. Long-term records by the authors suggested a number of departures from visitation in alternate years. Three local Christmas Bird Counts (CBCs) spanning the last 41 winters supported the less-than-regular pattern shown by individual observations. CBC redpoll data from across the Atlantic Provinces revealed annual redpoll visitations across southern New Brunswick, where the largest regional counts (adjusted for observer effort) usually occurred. Visitation to Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland was less frequent, and patterns there were often obscured by scarcity of CBCs with both long-run coverage and redpolls. Examination of those data in relation to varying food availability suggested that irregular abundance but near-annual occurrence of redpoll visitation explains observed observations better than attempts to find periodicity in their irruptions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".