Sensitivity of deep convection to terrain forcing over Mediterranean islands
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The influence of mountainous islands on the initiation of deep convection is investigated using the Consortium for Small‐scale Modeling (COSMO) model. A case study and sensitivity analysis is performed for 26 August 2009, when moist convection occurred over both Corsica and Sardinia islands in the western Mediterranean Sea. Sensitivity runs with systematically modified topography are explored to evaluate the relative importance of the land–sea contrast and the terrain height for convection initiation. Whereas no island precipitation is simulated when the islands are completely removed, all simulations that represent these land surfaces develop convective precipitation. Although convection initiates progressively earlier in the day over taller islands, the precipitation rates and accumulations do not show a fixed relationship with terrain height. This is due to the competing effects of different physical processes. Firstly, whereas the forcing for low‐level ascent increases over taller islands the boundary‐layer moisture supply decreases, which diminishes the conditional instability and precipitable water. Secondly, whereas taller islands enhance the inland propagation speeds of sea‐breeze fronts they also block these fronts mechanically and prevent them from reaching the island interior. As a result, the island precipitation is rather insensitive to island terrain height except for one particular case in which the island precipitation increases considerably due to an optimal superposition of the sea breeze and upslope flow. Comparing the two islands, convective precipitation develops earlier over Corsica due to its increased terrain height and reduced convective inhibition. However, precipitation amounts are substantially larger over Sardinia, where a stronger land–sea contrast gives rise to a more intense and organized line of sea‐breeze convergence. These results demonstrate the complexity of interactions between sea breezes and orography and reinforce that an adequate representation of detailed topographic features is necessary to account for thermally induced wind systems that initiate deep convection.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".