Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with First Order Autoregressive Disturbances
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model, disturbances are assumed to be correlated across equations and it will be erroneous to assume that disturbances behave independently, hence, the need for an efficient estimator. Literature has revealed gain in efficiency of the SUR estimator over the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator when the errors are correlated across equations. This work, however, considers methods of estimating a set of regression equations when disturbances are both contemporaneously and serially correlated. The Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), OLS and Iterative Ordinary Least Squares (IOLS) estimation techniques were considered and the form of autocorrelation examined. Prais-Winstein transformation was conducted on simulated data for the different sample sizes used to remove autocorrelations. Results from simulation studies showed that the FGLS was efficient both in small samples and large samples. Comparative performances of the estimators were investigated on the basis of the standard errors of the parameter estimates when estimating the model with and without AR(1) and the results showed that the estimators performed better with AR(1) as the sample size increased especially from 20. On the criterion of the Root Mean Square, the FGLS was found to have performed better with AR(1) and it was revealed that bias reduces as sample size increases. In all cases considered, the SUR estimator performed best. It was consistently most efficient than the OLS and IOLS estimators.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it