The Shifting Global Patterns of Agricultural Productivity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Growth in supply of agricultural commodities is primarily driven by growth in productivity, especially as land and water resources for agriculture have become more constrained.Hence, the future path of agricultural productivity will be the key determinant of the future of the world food equation.Here we present and assess trends in agricultural productivity growth over recent decades as a first step to informing views about likely agricultural supply and food security outcomes worldwide over the decades ahead.Our emphasis is on global trends in selected partial factor productivity measures that express output relative to a particular input such as land or labor.These include crop yields, which measure the quantity produced of a particular output relative to a particular input, land.Descriptions of more-complete measures of productivity for selected key agricultural countries or regions of the world, including Canada, China, the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastern Europe, and the United States, are presented in the articles that follow.These agricultural economies are each quite distinctive (Table 1), and productivity developments within them have global consequences, given that they collectively produce around one-half of the world's agricultural output value.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".