Air temperature changes in Svalbard and the surrounding seas from 1865 to 1920
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT In this article, air temperature variability in the Svalbard region (74–82°N, 6–30°E) from 1865 to 1920 is presented based on a large amount of early instrumental land and marine data. Measurements were taken during many exploratory and scientific expeditions to the study area. In addition, changes of air temperature from historical times to the present day (1981–2010) were investigated. Present‐day air temperatures for land were taken from regular meteorological stations and from campaign measurements, while for marine environment data were taken from three reanalysis products: 20CR, ERA‐20C and ERA‐Interim. Analysis reveals that Svalbard (land data) in the period 1865–1920 was markedly colder than today (1981–2010, by about 3 °C) in all seasons except summer, when air temperature was similar in both periods. However, the majority of mean monthly air temperatures in historical times still lie within two standard deviations (SDs) from the modern mean. Marine data show good correspondence with land data. The May–September average air temperature for the period 1871–1910 was slightly lower in the seas surrounding Svalbard (by 0.4 °C) than today. About 90% of these mean air temperatures lie within the range of ±3SDs from the ERA‐Interim present‐day mean. Seasonal patterns of air temperature changes in the Svalbard archipelago between historical and standard normal (1961–1990) periods show generally very good correspondence to similar changes, not only for the Atlantic region, but also for some other Arctic regions (e.g. SE Greenland, Canadian Arctic, Barents and Kara seas), as well as for the entire Arctic. All available reconstructions of annual air temperature using isolated series of early instrumental observations reveal that in historical times, air temperatures were colder than the standard normal (1961–1990) by about 0.5–1.0 °C. Compared with the new normal period (1981–2010), those differences rise to about 1.5–2.5 °C.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".