Freshwater Scarcity and Hydropolitical Conflict: Between the Science of Freshwater and the Politics of Conflict
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper evaluates and assesses hydropolitical conflict and maps the interface currently developing between water scarcity and political crisis and conflict. It discusses the politics of conflict over water in a manner that highlights several key components that represent the underpinnings of a model for studying international conflict over freshwater resources. To this end, the paper itself is presented in two sections. Part one is a discussion of the political ramifications that stem from the scientific characteristics of freshwater in order to understand the linkages between freshwater and political behaviour and international conflict. Part two then advances a foundational construct for a general hydropolitical conflict model that can be used to evaluate and test the basic assumptions of the hydro-conflict nexus.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.016 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".