The Impact of Dividend Payment on Market’s Expectation after the Global Crisis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines if there is any change in investors’ behavior toward dividend payout policy of the US corporations after the breakout of the global financial crisis in 2007-2008. In order to do so, dividend signaling theory is adopted as the main theme where we build econometrical models describing the influence of dividend payment on market’s expectation. Unlike most of the previous studies which use either price-dividend or dividend-earnings type tests to provide empirical evidence for the signaling theory, this paper attempts to perform a new type of test called present value of growth options (PVGO)-dividend type test. It is inspired by the recent development of real options as an investment valuation tool. This paper is in our opinion the very first to examine the implications of the signalling models in the context of the relation between dividend and PVGO using real options technique. Our result shows that in the market flooded with information like the US financial market, dividend no longer plays a significant role in delivering additional valuable information to investors. This outcome is highly inconsistent with dividend signaling theory.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".