Application of Bayesian Inference Techniques for Calibrating Eutrophication Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This research aims to integrate mathematical water quality models with Bayesian inference techniques for obtaining effective model calibration and rigorous assessment of the uncertainty underlying model predictions. The first part of my work combines a Bayesian calibration framework with a complex biogeochemical model to reproduce oligo-, meso- and eutrophic lake conditions. The model accurately describes the observed patterns and also provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables. The Bayesian estimations are also used for appraising the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance of different water quality criteria. The second part introduces a Bayesian hierarchical framework (BHF) for calibrating eutrophication models at multiple systems (or sites of the same system). The models calibrated under the BHF provided accurate system representations for all the scenarios examined. The BHF allows overcoming problems of insufficient local data by “borrowing strength” from well-studied sites. Both frameworks can facilitate environmental management decisions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".