Simulation of Market Demand for Traceable Pork with Different Levels of Safety Information: A Case Study in Chinese Consumers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Chinese government has always promoted the pork traceability system; however, expensive traceable pork of limited variety containing single‐level safety information cannot meet the differentiated consumer demand of the Chinese market. A survey was conducted of 2,080 consumers in five cities distributed in east, south, southwest, northeast, and central China, in which traceable pork hindquarter profiles were constructed by combining traceable safety information attributes with government certification, appearance, and price. Individual consumers’ part‐worth utilities were estimated using a choice experiment and hierarchical Bayesian inference. On this basis, combined with ordinary pork hindquarter profiles in the real market, different traceable pork hindquarter profiles were set to develop seven market schemes. Furthermore, market shares of each scheme were simulated using the random first choice method. Most consumers chose appearance rather than safety in the choice experiment, which also indicated that traceable safety information certified by the government had a higher part‐worth utility. Simulation results suggested that a larger market share could be better achieved by supplying multilevel traceable pork hindquarters in the market at the same time, rather than by supplying single‐level traceable pork hindquarters. Moreover, income was found to be the key factor in determining consumers’ demand. Le gouvernement chinois a toujours fait la promotion du système de traçabilité des porcs. Toutefois, les produits traçables, qui sont couteux, peu variés et accompagnés d'un seul niveau d'information sur la salubrité, ne peuvent satisfaire la demande particulière des consommateurs chinois. Un sondage dans lequel figuraient des renseignements sur les quartiers arrière de porcs, dont de l'information sur la salubrité, la certification du gouvernement, l'apparence et le prix, a été réalisé auprès de 2080 consommateurs dans cinq villes situées dans l'est, le sud, le sud‐ouest, le nord‐est et le centre de la Chine. Nous avons estimé les utilités partielles des consommateurs à l'aide des méthodes des choix discrets et de l'inférence bayésienne hiérarchique. À partir de ces données, combinées à des renseignements sur des quartiers arrière de porcs ordinaires sur le marché réel, nous avons élaboré sept scénarios de marché. Nous avons aussi simulé les parts de marché de chaque scénario à l'aide de la méthode du premier choix aléatoire. Dans la méthode des choix discrets, la plupart des consommateurs ont choisi l'apparence plutôt que la salubrité, ce qui indique que l'information sur la salubrité certifiée par le gouvernement avait une utilité partielle élevée. Les résultats de la simulation autorisent à penser qu'il serait possible de conquérir une plus grande part de marché si les quartiers arrière de porcs étaient accompagnés d'information de plusieurs niveaux en même temps plutôt que d'information d'un seul niveau. D'après nos résultats, le revenu représente le facteur clé dans la détermination de la demande des consommateurs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".