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A New Look at Halley’s Life Table

2011· article· en· W1900844198 on OpenAlexafffund
David R. Bellhouse

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Canadian institutionsWestern University
FundersSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of CanadaUniversity of CambridgeRoyal Society
KeywordsTable (database)Presentation (obstetrics)Context (archaeology)OutlierMathematicsComputer scienceHistoryStatistics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Summary Edmond Halley published his Breslau life table in 1693, which was arguably the first in the world based on population data. By putting Halley’s work into the scientific context of his day and through simple plots and calculations, new insights into Halley’s work are made. In particular, Halley tended to round his numbers and to massage his data for easier presentation and calculation. Rather than highlighting outliers as would be done in a modern analysis, Halley instead smoothed them out. Halley’s method of life table construction for early ages is examined. His lifetime distribution at higher ages, which is missing in his paper, is reconstructed and a reason is suggested for why Halley neglected to include these ages in his table.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.042
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.027
Threshold uncertainty score0.089

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.042
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0060.008
Science and technology studies0.0020.002
Scholarly communication0.0060.008
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0010.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0270.004

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.269
Teacher spread0.245 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations49
Published2011
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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