Winter conditions – not summer temperature – influence establishment of seedlings at white spruce alpine treeline in Eastern Quebec
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aims While treeline positions are globally correlated to growing season temperatures, seedling establishment, an important process of alpine treeline dynamics, is additionally controlled by regional‐scale factors such as snow cover duration, desiccating winds and biotic interactions. Knowing that alpine treelines have shown contrasting responses to climate change, we determined the relative importance of key abiotic and biotic factors involved in seedling survival and growth. Location McGerrigle Mountains, Parc National de la Gaspésie, Appalachian Range, eastern Quebec, Canada. Methods In two white spruce ( Picea glauca ) treeline sites, we used the microclimate in the vicinity of tree islands, densely packed clusters of trees isolated from each other by alpine tundra vegetation, to assess the effects of abiotic variables (sum of degree days [ DD ], snowpack duration and a wind exposure index) as well as the effects of biotic interactions with neighbouring vegetation on the survival and growth of transplanted white spruce seedlings. For 3 yr, we surveyed seedling survival twice a year to discriminate between winter and summer survival, and measured seedling growth at the end of each growing season. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate the relative effects of covariates on survival and growth. Results Survival probability decreased in microsites where winter DD was high, and increased in microsites with longer snowpack duration. In wind‐exposed microsites, seedling survival increased when neighbouring vegetation was present, indicating facilitative mechanisms. Seedling growth was positively affected by the duration of snow cover and tended to increase with higher DD during the previous year. In wind‐sheltered microsites, seedling growth tended to be negatively affected by neighbouring vegetation, indicating competitive mechanisms. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that seedling establishment is more sensitive to winter conditions, notably to the length of snow cover (which protects seedlings from frost and desiccation), than to summer temperature. Biotic interactions increased seedling establishment when environmental stresses were higher. We suggest that regional‐scale factors such as winter climate and biotic interactions should be included in modelling exercises to improve future treeline location forecasts.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it