The Impact of the Subprime Crisis on Canadian Banks’ Stock Returns
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyses the impact of the United States’ (US) subprime crisis on Canadian banks’ stock returns, using event study methodology. Our results suggest that despite their holdings of US toxic (subprime) mortgage-backed assets, Canadian banks have been solid in the face of the subprime crisis and the global 2007-2008 financial crisis. In spite of the huge 2007-2008 US financial turmoil, characterized by the failure of many financial institutions, Canadian banks’ stock returns were not negatively impacted by subprime events before March 14-16, 2008; more than a year after the beginning of the crisis. The fear of contagion coming from the US has been very limited. As shown by the CIBC case — the most exposed Canadian bank to subprime assets — the situation has been very well managed by banks. Moreover, the Government of Canada Insured Mortgage Purchase Program and Canadian Lenders Assurance Facility had been very helpful, and had positively impacted Canadian banks’ stock returns.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".