Specification of Periodic Autocovariance Structures in the Presence of Outliers
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper focuses on the specification of periodic autocovariance structures in the presence of outliers, we evaluate autocovariance structures using various outliers' generating models. The analytical results indicate that outliers affect the estimates of periodic autocovariance function (PACVF) due to biases and inflated standard errors. Robust autocovariance structures that accommodate the influence of outliers in different periodic processes are proposed. We fit AR (1) model using both the conventional and Jacknife autocovariance structures; the latter shows high precision in the standard errors of the estimates. We demonstrate our proposed methodology with the precipitation data from Maun Airport in Botswana, and the empirical study supports our theoretical findings.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it