Kaldor-Verdoorn's law and increasing returns to scale
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose – The aim of this study is to investigate the validity of the Kaldor-Verdoorn's law in explaining the long-run determinants of the labor productivity growth for the manufacturing sector of some developed economies (Western European Countries, Australia, Canada, Japan and the USA). Design/methodology/approach – The authors consider the period 1973-2006 using data provided by the European Commission – Economics and Financial Affairs. The method is instrumental variable. The robustness of estimates is checked by means of the Chow and the CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests. The authors consider the traditional specification of the dynamic Verdoorn law and the one which also includes investment to output ratio (I/Y), as a proxy of the capital growth rate, and the average labor cost growth, as a proxy of supply factors. Findings – The findings suggest that the law is valid for the manufacturing as countries show increasing returns to scale. Capital growth and labor cost growth do not appear important in explaining productivity growth. The estimated Verdoorn coefficients are found to be substantially stable throughout the period. Originality/value – The authors consider the most recent years, which has been characterized by a constant decline in the average GDP growth rates; a productivity growth decline; the long-term reduction in the manufacturing share of total employment. The authors examine the importance of alternative hypotheses such as those related to the existence of supply constraints. The authors check the stability of the KVL throughout the period under the consideration and across countries. The authors evaluate whether, in the case of the developed countries, economies of scale are significant.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it