The Origins of Mathematical Finance and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis: Louis Bachelier's Post-1900 Writings on the Theory of Speculation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Louis Bachelier's 1900 dissertation on the theory of speculation has been recognized since its 1964 translation into English as a landmark in the emergence of the modern analysis of mathematical finance, efficient markets, and stochastic processes. His writings on the theory of speculation over the next four decades have received much less notice. This paper examines Bachelier's continued efforts to extend, reformulate, and popularize his approach, with particular attention to the three chapters on speculation in his 1912 treatise on the calculus of probabilities (dismissively and uncomprehendingly reviewed by J. M. Keynes in a review of five books on probability)and his 1938 monograph on speculation and the calculus of probabilities, which is here translated into English for the first time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.018 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".