Failure Probabilities of Existing Overhead Shield Wires
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to introduce analytical models for accurate prediction of failure probabilities of existing shield wires and to recommend a time window for wire replacement at an acceptable failure threshold. Ductile and strength tests results and failures records of shield wires were examined to determine the trend of wires deteriorations as they age. Since most of failures occurred due to ice accretion during winter storms and wire deteriorations due to corrosion; an ice accretion model and corrosion models were used to predicts wire tensions and wire deteriorations during service life. To calculate the probability of failures, the strength and cross section area were assumed to be random variables modeled using normal distributions. The wire tensions due to ice accretions were calculated from the last 50 years of recorded winter storms. Anderson-Darling goodness of fit test was used to determine the best statistical model to fit the maximum annual wire tensions. The Gumbel distribution passes the test and was found to give stable results over wide range of tested conditions. Limit state function was developed and a computer program was written to determine the failure probabilities of shield wires using Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".