Advance, retreat, resettle? Climate change could produce a zero‐sum game for invasive species
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change will alter the threats presented by invasive species. Increasing temperatures and changing precipitation regimes will likely simultaneously improve the suitability of a region for some species while decreasing it for others. We demonstrate the zero‐sum game nature of these changes by modelling the changes to the projected distribution of 13 tropical and subtropical Tephritidae species in cities in A ustralia and N ew Z ealand using published CLIMEX models. Under current climate conditions, tropical and warm temperate cities were suitable for more species than arid or cool temperate ones. All N ew Z ealand cities increased in suitability, while Australian cities show more variable responses. The changes that occur under climate change are in line with the expectation of species ranges moving into higher latitudes but are also influenced by changes to the precipitation regime. With climate change, the nature of biosecurity threats will alter, the range of species able to survive in cool temperate regions is likely to increase with decreases in species ability to survive in tropical regions. Biosecurity agencies will need to respond to changing geography of threats.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it