A Bayesian approach to identifying mixtures from otolith chemistry data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Studies investigating population structure and mixed-stock composition of fish populations frequently use otolith chemistry as a natural tool for discerning stocks. Current methods for estimating mixed-stock composition, however, assume complete accuracy in the training data, which is often not the case. Here we present a method for estimating mixed-stock composition using multivariate continuous data that accounts for uncertainty in the training data. Application of the method to previously reported data for natal homing in weakfish ( Cynoscion regalis ) and simulations based on these data revealed that for sample sizes greater than about 30, the present method provides results that are quite similar to those of previous methods. An advantage of this Bayesian approach over other methods, however, is the ease with which functionals of the model, such as migration distance and direction, can be calculated. It also provides simple means of visualizing spatial structure in the classification probabilities and migration patterns.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.026 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".