An Analysis about the Structural Risks of China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves and Balance of Payments
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Firstly, this paper designs several Balance of Payments in light of its principle on each case to prove that there are no structural risks in China's foreign exchange reserves when FDI inflow has been increased greatly. Then, through the analysis of China's real Balance of Payments, the author finds out that the ratio of manufacturing commodities is low and that of processing goods is high in our country’s foreign trade and advocates there are the risks according to the fact which means the trade is controlled by FDI on some degrees. Finally, because so much short run capital is flowing into our country due to the expectation of RMB appreciation which increased the China's foreign exchange reserves enormously, the paper takes its uncertainty for the risks too. Needless to say，the only way to get rid of these risks is to strengthen our contrary's economic power which can protect our economic sovereignty and match the value of RMB. Keywords: Balance of Payments, Foreign Exchange Reserves, FDI (Foreign Direct Investment）, Structural Risks Resume cet essai elabore d’abord, d’apres le principe d’elaboration du balance des paiements international, des balances dans toutes les situations pour argumenter le fait que l’augmentation des investissements directs des etrangers ne constituent pas de risques organisationnels pour la reserve de devises de notre pays. Ensuite selon l’analyse des balances internationaux des dernieres annees, il revele que dans le commerce international de notre pays les produits finis occupent un petit pourcentage alors que le commerce pratique par les etrangers prend une bonne part. Ainsi l’auteur pense que le commerce international chinois- locomotive de la croissance economique- est limite et que cela constitue un danger latent pour les recettes de devises. Enfin, l’article argumente le point de vue que dans le contexte de la revalorisation de RMB depuis les dernieres annees, l’augmentation forte de la reserve de devises a cause de l’entree dans notre pays un grand nombre de capitaux instables a court terme est aussi un facteur de non-securite pour la reserve de devises. Sans aucun doute, afin d’eliminer ces dangers, on doit renforcer sans cesse la puissance economique de notre pays, assurer notre souverainete economique et faire egaler notre puissance economique et la valeur de RMB. Mots-cles: recettes et depenses internationales, reserve de devises, investissements directs des etrangers, risques organisationnels 摘 要 本文首先根據國際收支平衡表的編制原理，設計了各種情況下的國際收支平衡表，以論證流入我國的外商直接投資的增加不會構成我國外匯儲備的結構性風險。然後根據對我國近年的國際收支平衡表的分析，本文揭示了在我國的國際貿易中製成品比重小和外商從事的貿易比重大的事實，認為我國的國際貿易這一經濟增長的火車頭的駕駛權受到了控制，這是我國外匯收入的一種隱患。昀後本文又論證了近年來在人民幣升值的預期下，有大量的不穩定的短期資本流入我國而使我國的外匯儲備劇增，這也是我國的外匯儲備的不安全因素的觀點。毫無疑問，要消除這樣的風險，只有依靠不斷地增強我國的經濟實力，確保我國的經濟主權，並使我國的經濟實力與人民幣幣值相匹配。 關鍵詞：國際收支；外匯儲備；外商直接投資；結構性風險
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".