The impact of ozone depleting substances on the circulation, temperature, and salinity of the Southern Ocean: An attribution study with CESM1(WACCM)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Observations show robust changes in the circulation, temperature, and salinity of the Southern Ocean in recent decades. To what extent these changes are related to the formation of the ozone hole in the late twentieth century is an open question. Using a comprehensive chemistry‐climate Earth system model, we contrast model runs with varying and with fixed surface concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) from 1955 to 2005. In our model, ODS cause the majority of the summertime changes in surface wind stress which, in turn, induce a clear poleward shift of the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. In addition, more than 30% of the model changes in the temperature and salinity of the Southern Ocean are caused by ODS. These findings offer unambiguous evidence that increased concentrations of ODS in the late twentieth century are likely to have been been an important driver of changes in the Southern Ocean.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".