Constats d'infraction, accidents de la route et certitude relative de la peine : une évaluation quasi-expérimentale des effets contextuels et structurels de la dissuasion policière
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Results of studies using cross-section and time series data call into question the utility of deterrence theory to explain the relationship between arrests and crime. In this study, we propose that the absence of a relationship between arrests and the crime rate is explained, in part, by the omission of notions of contextual and structural deterrence in the analysis. Contextual deterrence would be produced when the risk of arrest is increased to an unacceptable level for the population and this risk is maintained over a lengthy period of time. Structural deterrence underscores the importance of considering police jurisdictions as a unit of analysis, since the sentence would affect the exposed population. In order to demonstrate the utility of such notions, we have evaluated the effect of the Road and Traffic Safety Team of the Montreal Police Service on collisions involving injuries. Our results show that the introduction of the Road and Traffic Safety Team was followed by an immediate and sustained increase in police activity, which, in turn, led to a gradual decrease in collisions with injury. These results show the importance of including the concepts of contextual and structural effects in the study of the general deterrent effect of sentencing.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".