Modelling BMI Trajectories in Children for Genetic Association Studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The timing of associations between common genetic variants and changes in growth patterns over childhood may provide insight into the development of obesity in later life. To address this question, it is important to define appropriate statistical models to allow for the detection of genetic effects influencing longitudinal childhood growth. METHODS AND RESULTS: Children from The Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine; n=1,506) Study were genotyped at 17 genetic loci shown to be associated with childhood obesity (FTO, MC4R, TMEM18, GNPDA2, KCTD15, NEGR1, BDNF, ETV5, SEC16B, LYPLAL1, TFAP2B, MTCH2, BCDIN3D, NRXN3, SH2B1, MRSA) and an obesity-risk-allele-score was calculated as the total number of 'risk alleles' possessed by each individual. To determine the statistical method that fits these data and has the ability to detect genetic differences in BMI growth profile, four methods were investigated: linear mixed effects model, linear mixed effects model with skew-t random errors, semi-parametric linear mixed models and a non-linear mixed effects model. Of the four methods, the semi-parametric linear mixed model method was the most efficient for modelling childhood growth to detect modest genetic effects in this cohort. Using this method, three of the 17 loci were significantly associated with BMI intercept or trajectory in females and four in males. Additionally, the obesity-risk-allele score was associated with increased average BMI (female: β=0.0049, P=0.0181; male: β=0.0071, P=0.0001) and rate of growth (female: β=0.0012, P=0.0006; male: β=0.0008, P=0.0068) throughout childhood. CONCLUSIONS: Using statistical models appropriate to detect genetic variants, variations in adult obesity genes were associated with childhood growth. There were also differences between males and females. This study provides evidence of genetic effects that may identify individuals early in life that are more likely to rapidly increase their BMI through childhood, which provides some insight into the biology of childhood growth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".