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Record W1967580379 · doi:10.5539/ijef.v7n1p37

Pessimism Shocks in a Model of Global Macroeconomic Interdependence

2014· article· en· W1967580379 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Rod Tyers

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Economics and Finance · 2014
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGlobal Financial Crisis and Policies
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersPeking University
KeywordsEconomicsPessimismInvestment (military)Consumption (sociology)Market liquidityMonetary economicsDownside riskCapital (architecture)MacroeconomicsFinancial economics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Insights into the four-region strategic behaviour that drives global economic performance can be derived from applications of the elemental multi-region, macroeconomic simulation model introduced in this paper. It has a global general equilibrium structure that embodies bilateral linkages between represented regions via both trade and investment. It is applied to strategic monetary policy during the post-GFC period, which has been characterised in the US, the EU and Japan by increased aversion to downside risk, the stochastic equivalent of pessimism over prices, disposable income levels and capital returns. The retention of full employment in the pessimistic regions is shown to require very considerable monetary expansions and these tend to flood the other regions with liquidity, temporarily raising their terms of trade, real consumption and investment while appreciating their real exchange rates. The results further suggest elements of a coordination game structure amongst the big four economies in which equilibria are characterised by collective monetary responses and deviations are punished via reduced output and employment.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.022
Threshold uncertainty score0.043

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0020.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.018
GPT teacher head0.239
Teacher spread0.220 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations11
Published2014
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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