National borders and international trade: evidence from the European Union
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper the impact of national borders on international trade within the European Union is considered. Using a gravity model, I find that, averaged over all EU countries, intranational trade is about ten times as high as international trade with an EU partner country of similar size and distance. This relatively strong home bias suggests that even within the European Union national borders still have a decisive impact on trade patterns. JEL Classification: F02, F14, F15, O52 Ce mémoire examine l'impact des frontières nationales sur le commerce international à l'intérieur de l'Union européenne. On montre que, en moyenne pour tous les pays de l'Union européenne, le commerce intranational est à peu près dix fois plus important que le commerce international avec un pays partenaire de l'Union européenne de même taille et à même distance. Ce degré relativement important de préférence nationale suggère que, même dans le cadre de l'Union européenne, les frontières nationales ont encore un impact déterminant sur les patterns de commerce.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".