Effect of melatonin on incidence of delirium among patients with hip fracture: a multicentre, double-blind randomized controlled trial
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Disturbance of the sleep-wake cycle is a characteristic of delirium. In addition, changes in melatonin rhythm influence the circadian rhythm and are associated with delirium. We compared the effect of melatonin and placebo on the incidence and duration of delirium. METHODS: We performed this multicentre, double-blind, randomized controlled trial between November 2008 and May 2012 in 1 academic and 2 nonacademic hospitals. Patients aged 65 years or older who were scheduled for acute hip surgery were eligible for inclusion. Patients received melatonin 3 mg or placebo in the evening for 5 consecutive days, starting within 24 hours after admission. The primary outcome was incidence of delirium within 8 days of admission. We also monitored the duration of delirium. RESULTS: A total of 452 patients were randomly assigned to the 2 study groups. We subsequently excluded 74 patients for whom the primary end point could not be measured or who had delirium before the second day of the study. After these postrandomization exclusions, data for 378 patients were included in the main analysis. The overall mean age was 84 years, 238 (63.0%) of the patients lived at home before admission, and 210 (55.6%) had cognitive impairment. We observed no effect of melatonin on the incidence of delirium: 55/186 (29.6%) in the melatonin group v. 49/192 (25.5%) in the placebo group; difference 4.1 (95% confidence interval -0.05 to 13.1) percentage points. There were no between-group differences in mortality or in cognitive or functional outcomes at 3-month follow-up. INTERPRETATION: In this older population with hip fracture, treatment with melatonin did not reduce the incidence of delirium. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Registry, NTR1576: MAPLE (Melatonin Against PLacebo in Elderly patients) study; www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=1576.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.122 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it