Influence of stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation on tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The possible influence of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical cyclone (TC) passages in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined using TC data recorded by the Tokyo Typhoon Center and the QBO index derived from reanalysis data. The influence is observed to be significant. The number of TCs approaching the East China Sea is large during the westerly phase of the QBO; however, during the easterly phase, the number of TCs approaching the eastern offshore of Japan is large. This difference in the TC tracks is found to be related to the background flow change associated with the QBO. However, the total number of TC events over the WNP and the sum of the number of TCs approaching the aforementioned two regions appear to be unrelated to the QBO phases.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it