Spring weather and the migration of geese from Scotland to Iceland
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Records of first arrivals of geese at sites in Iceland between 1950 and 1997 are combined with dates of departures from Scottish roosts and flights seen over northern Scotland to identify when migratory movements occurred. Greylag Geese Anser anser moved earliest, the mean date of first sightings in Iceland being 3 April (s.d.14.3 days) and of northward movements over Scotland 14 April (s.d. 12.9 days), the median first arrival and departure dates being 8 and 15 April. The mean date of first sightings in Iceland of pink‐footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus was 13 April (median 21 April) and of Scottish departures 20 April (median 25 April). The mean dates of Scottish departures and Icelandic sightings of Greenland White‐fronted Anser albifrons flavirostris, Barnacle Branta leucopsis and Brent geese Branta bernicla all lay between 18 and 22 April, with median dates from 19 to 27 April. Arrivals in Iceland were associated with anticyclonic conditions over Scotland on the previous day, while cyclonic conditions were avoided. There were more sightings over Scotland when conditions were unfavourable than would be expected from the frequencies of those conditions in April. There were unexpectedly few movements around dates of full moons (+/‐ 2 days). The three grey geese, but not the black geese, have tended to arrive in Iceland earlier in recent years. Head and westerly winds were far more frequent than tail winds, especially after 1970, and there is some evidence of eastward drifting, yet the energetic demands of the flight from Scotland to Iceland can rarely have been severe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".