A Simple Prediction Rule for All-Cause Mortality in a Cohort Eligible for Bariatric Surgery
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Current eligibility criteria for bariatric surgery use arbitrarily chosen body mass index (BMI) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) thresholds, an approach that has been criticized as arbitrary and lacking evidence. OBJECTIVES: To verify the importance of BMI as a mortality predictor, to identify other important mortality predictors, and to construct a mortality prediction rule in a population eligible for bariatric surgery. DESIGN: We studied individuals from a population-representative register who met contemporary eligibility criteria for bariatric surgery (BMI, ≥35.0 alone or 30.0-34.9 with an obesity-related comorbidity) from January 1, 1988, through December 31, 1998. We used binary logistic regression to construct a parsimonious model and a clinical prediction rule for 10-year all-cause mortality. SETTING: The United Kingdom General Practice Research Database, a population-representative primary care registry. PARTICIPANTS: Fifteen thousand three hundred ninety-four patients aged 18 to 65 years. EXPOSURE: Bariatric surgery. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: Ten-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 46.9 (11.9) years, BMI was 36.2 (5.5), and 63.2% of the patients were women. All-cause mortality was 2.1%, and mean follow-up duration was 9.9 years. The final model, which included age (odds ratio, 1.09 per year [95% CI, 1.07-1.10]), type 2 diabetes mellitus (2.25 [1.76-2.87]), current smoking (1.62 [1.28-2.06]), and male sex (1.50 [1.20-1.87]), had a C statistic of 0.768. Although BMI significantly predicted mortality (odds ratio, 1.03 per unit [95% CI, 1.01-1.05]), it did not improve model discrimination or calibration. We divided clinical prediction rule scoring into 4 tiers. All-cause mortality was 0.2% in tier 1, 0.9% in tier 2, 2.0% in tier 3, and 5.2% in tier 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: All-cause 10-year mortality in obese individuals eligible for bariatric surgery can be estimated using a simple 4-variable prediction rule based on age, sex, smoking, and diabetes mellitus. Body mass index was not an important mortality predictor. Further work is needed to define low, moderate, and high absolute risk thresholds and to provide external validation.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it