Population dynamics of rainbow smelt (<i>Osmerus mordax</i>) in Lakes Ontario and Erie: a modeling analysis of cannibalism effects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We used a stochastic stage-based matrix model (annual time step) and a bioenergetics model (daily time step) to simulate population dynamics, production, consumption, and conversion efficiency for rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) populations in Lakes Ontario and Erie. Cannibalism on young-of the-year (YOY) smelt by yearlings was the only scenario that reproduced alternate-year recruitment cycles observed in Lakes Ontario and Erie. Assuming constant survivorship and 5% variation in cannibalism, less than one YOY consumed per yearling smelt per year in both lakes could produce fluctuations greater than those observed. We found that at estimated daily mortality rates and during the pelagic phase of larvae only, 2% of the yearling smelt in Lake Erie and 5.1% in Lake Ontario need to consume one YOY per day to induce the observed abundance fluctuations. Bioenergetics simulations of alternating recruitment produced fluctuations in simulated values for annual gross production of approximately 6-7 and 31-59% for the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie smelt populations, respectively.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".