Slow Earthquakes, Preseismic Velocity Changes, and the Origin of Slow Frictional Stick-Slip
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Earthquakes normally occur as frictional stick-slip instabilities, resulting in catastrophic failure and seismic rupture. Tectonic faults also fail in slow earthquakes with rupture durations of months or more, yet their origin is poorly understood. Here, we present laboratory observations of repetitive, slow stick-slip in serpentinite fault zones and mechanical evidence for their origin. We document a transition from unstable to stable frictional behavior with increasing slip velocity, providing a mechanism to limit the speed of slow earthquakes. We also document reduction of P-wave speed within the active shear zone before stick-slip events. If similar mechanisms operate in nature, our results suggest that higher-resolution studies of elastic properties in tectonic fault zones may aid in the search for reliable earthquake precursors.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it