Regional Climate Change: Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Series at Selected Canadian Sites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global climate change does not necessarily imply that temperature or precipitation is increasing at specific locations. The hypothesis of increasing temperature and precipitation trends associated with global climate change is tested using actual annual temperature and precipitation data for nine selected weather stations, spatially distributed across Canada. Vogelsang's (1998) partial sum and Woodward et al's (1997) bootstrap methods are used for testing for trend. Both methods suggest no warming in the Canadian temperature series except for Toronto, Ontario, which had significant increase over time, along with Moncton, New Brunswick, and Indian Head, Saskatchewan, which had marginal increases. There is no evidence of increasing trend in precipitation except for Moncton, New Brunswick, which had a significantly increasing trend. Thus, public policies designed to address the regional effects of climate change need to be adapted for a particular ecological zone, based on knowledge of the climate trends for that region, rather than on general global climate change patterns. Les changements climatiques à l'échelle planétaire ne signifient pas nécessairement que la température et les précipitations sont en augmentation dans des emplacements donnés. Nous avons testé I'hypothèse d'une assoviation de la tendance à la hausse de la température et des précipitations avec les changements climatiques planétaires à partir des données réelles de température et de précipitations obtenues à 9 stations d'observation climatique réparties dans les diverses régions du Canada. Nous utilisons, pour cefaire, la méthode des sommes partielles de Vogelsang (1998) et celle de rééchantillonnage bootstrap de Woodward et al (1997). Les deux méthodes ne révèlent aucun réchauffement de la température dans les séries chronologiques, sauf pour Toronto, en Ontario, où l'on constate une hausse significative en fonction du temps, ainsi que pour Moncton au Nouveau‐Brunswick et Indian Head en Saskatchewan qui marquent de très légères augmentations. Rien n'indique une tendance à la hausse des précipitations, sauf à Moncton où se dessine une tendance significative dans ce sens. Les programmes publics destinés à faire face aux effets régionaux du changement climatique doivent donc être adaptés à chaque zone écologique particulière, à partir d”observations faites dans la région même, plutôt que de la configuration du changement climatique à l'échelle planétaire.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".