An assessment of present and future climate in the Mackenzie Delta and the near‐shore Beaufort Sea region of Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change is projected to significantly alter physical, biological, and socio‐economic systems, particularly in high latitudes. The Mackenzie Delta and near‐shore Beaufort Sea region of Canada is one such area that has already experienced considerable changes in climate and associated impacts. It has also been identified as highly sensitive due to recent oil and gas exploration and extraction. All Global Climate Models (GCMs) are projecting further changes to the Arctic climate, however, regional‐scale variations are not well documented. Using seven international GCMs, this study quantifies 18 future (2010–2039) temperature and precipitation projections over the Beaufort region on annual and seasonal scales. Several observed gridded temperature and precipitation datasets are also compared. Observed climate comparisons reveal substantial variability, especially for precipitation. All future projections demonstrate temperature and for the most part, precipitation increases, however, there is a considerable range on both temporal and spatial scales. For temperature, autumn has the greatest change (+1.4 to + 3.3 °C), followed by winter (+1.2 to + 2.6 °C), spring (+0.8 to + 2.4 °C), and summer (+0.2 to + 1.6 °C). Spatially, the ocean warms more than the land during the cold season, and the eastern Beaufort is warmer than the western region. Future precipitation shows annual increases averaging between 4.8 and 10.7%. Unlike temperature, seasonal precipitation changes do not vary greatly although slight decreases are projected in some scenarios. Recent (1991–2005) temperature changes at Inuvik, Northwest Territories, indicate that Beaufort‐region warming is occurring faster than projected by the majority of GCMs. However, precipitation has not experienced these rapid changes. In terms of extremes, climate‐change projections revealed a substantial shift in the temperature distribution toward fewer very cold months and several more warm months. Extremely high monthly precipitation amounts are also projected to increase. This study can be considered an important step towards addressing future climate‐change impact assessments in Arctic regions. Copyright © 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".