Risk of Developing Colorectal Cancer Following a Negative Colonoscopy Examination
Bibliographic record
Abstract
CONTEXT: Limited evidence exists to guide the optimal frequency of repeat endoscopic examination for colorectal cancer screening after a negative colonoscopy. OBJECTIVE: To determine the duration and magnitude of the risk of developing colorectal cancer following performance of a negative colonoscopy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Population-based retrospective analysis of individuals whose colonoscopy evaluations did not result in a diagnosis of colorectal neoplasia. Patients who had been evaluated between April 1, 1989, and December 31, 2003, were identified using Manitoba Health's physician billing claims database (N = 35 975). Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated to compare colorectal cancer incidence in our cohort with colorectal cancer incidence in the provincial population. Stratified analysis was performed to determine the duration of the reduced risk. Patients with a history of colorectal cancer prior to the index colonoscopy, inflammatory bowel disease, resective colorectal surgery, and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy within the 5 years before the index colonoscopy were excluded. Cohort members were followed up from the time of the index colonoscopy until diagnosis of colorectal cancer, death, out-migration from Manitoba, or end of the study period on December 31, 2003. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of colorectal cancer. RESULTS: A negative colonoscopy was associated with SIRs of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.81) at 6 months, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.56-0.78) at 1 year, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.48-0.72) at 2 years, 0.55 (95% CI, 0.41-0.73) at 5 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.09-0.65) at 10 years. The proportion of colorectal cancer located in the right side of the colon was significantly higher in the colonoscopy cohort than the rate in the Manitoba population (47% vs 28%; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing colorectal cancer remains decreased for more than 10 years following the performance of a negative colonoscopy. There is a need to improve the early detection rate of right-sided colorectal neoplasia in usual clinical practice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".