Comparing modern and past fire regimes to assess changes in prehistoric lightning and anthropogenic ignitions in a Jeffrey pine – mixed conifer forest in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Mexico
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fire histories of Jeffrey pine ( Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.) – mixed conifer forests in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, Mexico, recently described through analysis of 300 years of tree-ring fire-scars, indicate there have been four distinct fire-regime periods based on fire frequency and size. We used modern lightning and fire data to assess whether the current lightning regime could have supported the prehistoric fire regime. Although there are several sources of uncertainty, the present lightning regime, concentrated in the summer with little spring activity, may be insufficient to support the high number and spring seasonality of fires recorded during some periods in the past. Changes in the ignition regime recorded during the past 300 years could have been due to anthropogenic and (or) climatic factors; available evidence suggests periods of frequent fire were dominated by anthropogenic ignitions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".