Identifying the Rupture Plane of the 2001 Nisqually, Washington, Earthquake
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The 2001 Nisqually earthquake occurred within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Previous seismic and geodetic studies could not confidently identify its actual fault plane from the two nodal planes. In this study, we apply the recently developed source-scanning algorithm to local seismic waveforms and show unambiguously that the steeply east-dipping plane is the rupture plane. The rupture began near the bottom of the subducting crust and propagated downward into the subducting uppermost mantle. If intraslab earthquakes are assumed to be due to dehydration embrittlement, the source dimension is unlikely to grow any larger because the warm thermal state of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate limits dehydration to a shallow depth below the slab surface. Numerical modeling of the thermal structure indicates that dehydration embrittlement can only take place in the top 10 km of the subducting mantle, implying that the maximum size of an intraslab earthquake in northern Cascadia would be M w∼7 or less.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".