Relationships between climate and population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 23:81-87 (2002) - doi:10.3354/cr023081 Relationships between climate and population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA Guiming Wang1,*, N. Thompson Hobbs1, Kenneth M. Giesen2, Hector Galbraith3, Dennis S. Ojima1, Clait E. Braun2 1Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, 1231 East Drive, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1499, USA 2Colorado Division of Wildlife, Wildlife Research Center, 317 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA 3Galbraith Environmental Sciences, 633 Furman Way, Boulder, Colorado 80303, USA *Present address: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1499, USA *Email: gwang@nrel.colostate.edu ABSTRACT: The potential for anthropogenic changes in climate has raised questions about how these changes might affect wildlife populations. We fit the Ricker population model to 25 years of data on the population sizes of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado, USA, using 12 different weather variables as covariates. The best approximating model for population growth rates of the ptarmigan was selected using the Akaike information criterion and Aikaike weights. Our linear regression results suggest that median hatch dates advanced significantly from 1975 to 1999 in response to increases in April and May temperatures. Our best approximating population model indicated that high winter minimum temperatures retarded the growth rate of the population. Our data also had reasonable support that high mean winter monthly minimum temperatures and high mean winter monthly maximum temperatures might lower the population growth rate of the ptarmigan. We simulated the effects of future warming on the ptarmigan population in RMNP using our best ptarmigan population model and future climate scenarios projected by the Canadian Climate Center and Hadley Centre models. Our simulation results suggested that future warming would accelerate declines in ptarmigan abundance. Although our results showed a clear population level response to variation in climate, we did not detect a density-dependent effect in the ptarmigan population, and we cannot completely explain the inverse relationship between winter temperatures and population growth rates. A process-oriented modeling approach is needed for future studies to elucidate the mechanisms of the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of the white-tailed ptarmigan. KEY WORDS: Breeding phenology · Climate · Climate warming · Population dynamics · Population model · White-tailed ptarmigan Full text in pdf format PreviousExport citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 23, No. 1. Online publication date: December 20, 2002 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2002 Inter-Research.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it