A Poorly Known High-Latitude Parasitoid Wasp Community: Unexpected Diversity and Dramatic Changes through Time
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change will have profound and unanticipated effects on species distributions. The pace and nature of this change is largely unstudied, especially for the most diverse elements of terrestrial communities--the arthropods--here we have only limited knowledge concerning the taxonomy and the ecology of these groups. Because Arctic ecosystems have already experienced significant increases in temperature over the past half century, shifts in community structure may already be in progress. Here we utilise collections of a particularly hyperdiverse insect group--parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera; Braconidae; Microgastrinae)--at Churchill, Manitoba, Canada in the early and mid-twentieth century to compare the composition of the contemporary community to that present 50-70 years ago. Morphological and DNA barcoding results revealed the presence of 79 species of microgastrine wasps in collections from Churchill, but we estimate that 20% of the local fauna awaits detection. Species composition and diversity between the two time periods differ significantly; species that were most common in historic collections were not found in contemporary collections and vice versa. Using barcodes we compared these collections to others from across North America; contemporary Churchill species are most affiliated with more south-western collections, while historic collections were more affiliated with eastern collections. The past five decades has clearly seen a dramatic change of species composition within the area studied coincident with rising temperature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".