Markov Aging Process and Phase-Type Law of Mortality
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this article, we propose a finite-state Markov process with one absorbing state to model human mortality. A health index called physiological age is introduced and modeled by the Markov process. Under this model the time of death follows a phase-type distribution. The model possesses many desirable analytical properties useful for mortality analysis. Closed-form expressions are available for many quantities of interest including the conditional survival probabilities of the time of death and the actuarial present values of the whole life insurance and annuity. The heterogeneity or frailty effect of a cohort can be expressed explicitly. The model is also able to explain some stylized facts of observed mortality data. We fit the model to some Swedish population cohort data and life tables compiled by the U.S. Social Security Administration. The fitting results are very satisfactory.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it