River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0˚C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it